Healthy Influence Blog

Ardent and devoted readers of this blog know that I’ve picked Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Giuliani as the likely nominees with Mrs. Clinton winning the general election. Using only my unique and peculiar skills as a persuasion theorist, researcher, and practitioner, I carefully evaluate all candidates’ campaigning background and solely on the basis of campaigning experience I make predictions. Clinton and Giuliani have the most successful experience of all the candidates, so that’s why I’m picking them.

Now, Mr. Mike Huckabee is running strong in the polls and in media coverage. I had not seriously considered him on March 25, 2007 when I did my first post on Presidential politics. Since he’s playing well right now, let’s amend my earlier analysis.

As a concrete proxy for assessing candidate persuasion skill I look at campaign experience. The argument is simple: You’re a better persuader if you’ve been involved in more winning elections. By this logic neither Mr. Al Gore nor Mr. John Kerry had a chance against Mr. George W. Bush and if you look back on presidential campaigns at least since FDR, it’s apparent to me at least that this proxy is a great indicator of likely success.

Mr. Huckabee is running strong right now, but I predict that he will not win either the general election or the nomination and probably won’t be a serious candidate going into the convention (”serious” meaning likely to win the nomination, not just a nice guys with some delegates). His campaign vita is seriously deficient (although not as thin as Mr. Barack Obama’s whose continued success defies Healthy Influence gravity).

Mr. Huckabee has won three regular statewide elections in Arkansas. That’s it. He was elected lieutenant governor in a special election, then elected in a regular election. While lieutenant governnor he ascended to the governor’s office due to corruption charges against Mr. Guy Tucker. Two years later, Mr. Huckabee was elected governor in a regular election, then re-elected four years later. It is important to note that Mr. Huckabee got his offices (either lieutenant governor or governor) through unusual circumstances the first time for each office (a special election or ascension through constitutional means). After he had the office, he then won an election.

That strikes me as thin persuasion experience.

Please realize here that I’m not taking any position on any candidates positions, just looking at the resume for indications of persuasion skill. Like Mr. Obama, Mr. Huckabee is clearly less experienced than several other candidates and is therefore more likely to fail.