Healthy Influence – Persuasion Blog

communication for a change

Archive for May, 2010

Fooled by Randomness with Big Apple Crime

19th May 2010

Big Apple GunThe New York Times headlines a story as,

“A Rise in Violent Crime Evokes City’s Unruly Past”

The article then winds a well written piece around recent increases in Big Apple crime and takes every opportunity to worry that it presages a return to the bad old days when crime rates everywhere in America reached peaks not seen in generations.  They even include numbers, statistics, and percentages, but no exclamation points.

Any one with any sense, even those of us lacking in formal statistical analysis, would be reluctant to draw such conclusions, yet journalists and advocates not only make a living with such fortune telling, but also actually seem to believe the tea leaves.  Just watching children or pets day by day teaches you about natural variation so that you don’t get fooled with minor fluctuations.  If you get trained in statistics, one of the first things you realize is that the Normal Curve is just a mathematician’s way of saying something varies a bit.

Yet, some folks, most notably in this instance, journalists and advocates, see Change where the rest of us see Personality.  Part of this is due to the fact that journalists and advocates are notorious number-knuckleheads.  Numbers are like quotations from people.  Just quote accurately and you understand.  You don’t have to actually think about the number or the quote and try to understand it.

It’s hard to figure who’s more antsy over this crime calm:  Criminals or Journalists.

If journalism is persuasion, then of course, these stories are just stories, little verbal strings of clever inSincerity.  But, journalism isn’t only or primarily persuasion, nor is advocacy.  They are supposed to be Sincere and when they are proven InSincere, they suffer badly, often fatally.

Posted in Government, Health, HowTo, Opinion, Politics, Rules, Science | Comments Off

Scaredy Cat

18th May 2010

FB Scaredy CatA few days ago I posted on an interesting error at the Wall Street Journal that revealed their Man Behind The Curtain.  The Journal is providing a Facebook box in their stories that lists which current WSJ entries are getting FB hits.  It’s like those boxes that have Most Emailed or Most Popular or Most Blogged on them.  That’s nothing surprising, but the error one day replaced that fairly innocuous information with something much more interesting:  My Facebook page.  Right.  Instead of just following links from Facebook to WSJ pages and aggregating that information, the Journal clearly has access to my personal page information (how else could they replicate it exactly?).  Stated another way, they have my complete data file that includes everything I’ve posted, plus whatever my Friends have posted.

Melanie visited WSJ that day with her computer and found the same thing occurring.  Even though she is not a subscriber and is not even a registered user at WSJ, her Facebook page also appeared in various WSJ articles.  In the following several days this has not happened again.

I found this curious so I contacted some tech bloggers about it and also posted at my Psychology Today blog, Persuade Me.  Now, most of my PT posts get under 500 hits, but popular ones will easily go over 1,000 in a few hours.  I expected a post that combines Facebook and Fox News (Fox owns the Journal) and this interesting access to personal FB information should have lit up my PT blog and email inbox.

It didn’t.

In what is now a window of seven days, that post has attracted under 500 hits.  I received not one follow up email from tech bloggers.

Color me both surprised and confused.

Without question, Facebook has sold my complete file to another source and that source is using my FB information to persuade me.  I don’t particularly care that the source is Fox and Rupert Murdoch.  I’d have the same concern with any other group.  Facebook is the rat in all this with a massive demonstration of Great and InSincere Persuasion that fooled me into providing a lot of friend-level information about myself that they then used for marketing purposes.

As a persuasion guy, I recognize and applaud their initial skill.  Mark Zuckerberg and his VC partners quickly realized the implication of the mass popularity of Facebook and they moved silently and effectively to secure a huge new database of marketing information.  Nowadays, they’ve clearly shifted from persuasion guys to power guys.  I think they’ve Jumped That Shark and are now just playing Bare Knuckle Business that would make a 19th century robber baron proud.  It’s rather like that old Sicilian proverb:  Behind every great fortune is a crime.

Just think about this.  Mark Zuckerberg can access the global Facebook database composed of millions of people with thousands of bits of personal information.  Any time he wants, he can view all of your information and do with it what he wishes.

As a citizen I’m surprised that Facebook is getting away with this and that there’s little more than flaming email, blog posts, and comments from people.  Virtually no one sees the Digital Danger that I perceive making me a Scaredy Cat or Cassandra or perhaps Just Another Fool.

Posted in Business, HowTo, Tech | Comments Off

Obama’s Over the Top

17th May 2010

West Wing WeekWhen the press are complaining about access to the President, you know the President is doing something that is probably effective persuasion.  And, the press are complaining that they can’t get much time to ask him questions whether in large, noisy session or in a much desire exclusive interview.  But, if the President doesn’t talk to the press, how does he get the word out?

Here.

Whitehouse.gov has always been a great source of direct from the horse’s mouth information about the President, but during the Bush Administration, that website tended to be inert persuasion.  Not so with Mr. Obama.  If you haven’t visited Whitehouse.gov, I highly recommend you take the time to peruse it.  Obama is not simply posting up position papers, he’s persuading.  And, he’s using the Internet to jump over the traditional media sources just as others are using the Internet to jump the media in other ways (Craiglist!).

Posted in Government, HowTo, Politics, Tech | Comments Off

Shakespeare for Persuasion III – Dissonance

16th May 2010

MetaphorProfessor Harold Bloom observed, “Shakespeare will go on explaining us because he invented us,” in his book, Shakespeare:  the Invention of the Human.  Bloom’s argument is that Shakespeare understood and represented human nature better than anyone before or since and thus gave us the image of ourselves.  If we study his images, we study ourselves.  Today, let’s consider a persuasion force, dissonance, that drives one of Shakespeare’s largest images:  tragedy.

We’ll pivot from Dr. Bloom to Professor A.C. Bradley and his analysis of Shakespeare art of tragedy.  [FauxItAll Sidebar:  If you like Shakespeare, you'd enjoy reading Professor Bradley's comments which you can acquire for free at Gutenberg.  Even though Bradley was a 19th century academic, he writes with a modern style and an eternal insight; he is sharp.]  Bradley explains how Shakespeare went about creating tragedy, how it was different from other tragedians before and after the Bard, and how Shakespeare made it happen.  Consider this string of quotes.

“The centre of the tragedy, therefore, may be said with equal truth to lie in action issuing from character, or in character issuing in action.”

“‘A tragedy is a story of exceptional calamity leading to the death of a man in high estate,’ . . . that the story is one of human actions producing exceptional calamity and ending in the death of such a man.”

“There is the standard dramatic conflict of a clash between two competing individuals or groups.  Shakespeare adds an additional conflict:  a clash of desires, values, spirits within the hero.  Call this the outer and inner conflicts.”

“. . . a fatal tendency to identify the whole being with one interest, object, passion, or habit of mind. This, it would seem, is, for Shakespeare, the fundamental tragic trait.”

“He errs, by action or omission; and his error, joining with other causes, brings on him ruin. This is always so with Shakespeare.  As we have seen, the idea of the tragic hero as a being destroyed simply and solely by external forces is quite alien to him; and not less so is the idea of the hero as contributing to his destruction only by acts in which we see no flaw. But the fatal imperfection or error, which is never absent, is of different kinds and degrees.”

Taken in summary Bradley argues that Shakespeare creates tragedy from an internally directed person who strives greatly in great circumstances, but through the flaws of human nature, chooses a course of action that will produce suffering then catastrophic failure.

Othello kills Desdemona in cold justification, driven both by jealousy and pride as manipulated by Iago.

Macbeth joins with his wife to murder his way to the throne, justified by prophecy, vaulting ambition, and a prideful wife.

Richard II thinks poetry will lead a country and scans English verse to his death.

Richard III murders to the throne and explains it with his strength of character formed from his misformed body.

Hamlet broods and kills to no end at all, justified with his exquisite ability to find and value nuance of thought.

In all Shakespearian tragedies, the hero deliberately chooses in ways that cause him great suffering – existential doubt, murder, usurpation – yet he persists to his doom only occasionally realizing at the end that he was fortune’s fool.  How can any human persist in such suffering and still be human?

Dissonance.

Shakespeare’s tragic characters all suffer for what they love and that suffering serves to intensify their drive, their choices, their actions and motivate the movement of the play to the ultimate disaster.

As readers or viewers of these plays, we can observe the errors, but it is up to the actor to sell the dissonance that must drive the suffering.  If you see a performance of a Shakespearian tragedy and don’t feel compelled, you probably saw an actor who could not convince you of the psycho-logic dissonance causes.  As a great example, I’ve seen King Lear both live and in films, but it wasn’t until I saw Laurence Olivier’s interpretation that I finally believed Lear and understood the play.  Olivier made Lear’s suffering seem not honorable or foolish, but just Lear’s character, a man who loved his power more than his ability to understand it or use it wisely.

Shakespeare as near as I can discern did not understand dissonance in an overt and clear way and he certainly never tried to explain it.  He just seemed to understand human nature and in particular this most strange thing called dissonance.

Posted in Arts, HowTo, Metaphors | Comments Off

Spotting InSincere, but Persuasive Science

15th May 2010

QuackeryQuackwatch.org provides reliable knowledge and comment on health and safety claims functioning somewhat like the popular Snopes.com that debunks urban legends.  Quackwatch ferrets out the weasels who pitch snake oil to distressed town folk warning you in time to spare you wallet and maybe your health.  One nice feature at Quackwatch is the Seven Warning Signs of Bogus Science by Robert Park.

1. The discoverer pitches the claim directly to the media.

2. The discoverer says that a powerful establishment is trying to suppress his or her work.

3. The scientific effect involved is always at the very limit of detection.

4. Evidence for a discovery is anecdotal.

5. The discoverer says a belief is credible because it has endured for centuries.

6. The discoverer has worked in isolation.

7. The discoverer must propose new laws of nature to explain an observation.

As you scan over these Seven Signs (which sounds more than a bit Biblical, doesn’t it?), you can surely remember claims you’ve seen on the web employing exactly one or more of the Signs.  And, if you think just a bit more, you can see the hand of persuasion moving under these Seven Signs.

Most particularly, they require Low WATT processing from the consumer.  As long as you don’t get too thoughtful about anything, the Bogus Scientist has a chance for the sale.  The central claim in the Seven Signs is the Lonely Genius Fighting The Establishment which is basically the Authority Cue combined with the Scarcity Cue.

The largest threat to your persuasive freedom is your own human nature and your tendency to go Low WATT.  Education in the form of this blog and various reliable readings provide some relief, but while you should trust everybody, always cut the cards.

Posted in Business, Health, HowTo | Comments Off

 

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