People who demonstrate more effective persuasion skills are more likely to get nominated for the Presidency and then more likely to win the general election. Don’t think about their public speaking skills; that’s just a small part of persuasion skill. Think about the people they attract as staffers and campaigners and volunteers and donors. Think about how they run strong campaigns with good finishes. It seems rather obvious, but persuasion is a crucial skill here particularly as manifest in campaigning.

Thinking only about the proven persuasion record of the various people announced or likely to announce, it is clear to me that Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are head and shoulders above their competitors in each party. I predict that each will earn the nomination of their respective party, barring, of course, some unforeseeable bolt from the blue (cancer recurs with Mr. Giuliani, for example).

Clinton played a major role in all of her husband’s elections and thus saw first hand how to run winning Presidential elections. She knows what it takes to persuade and influence people to get a nomination. She also has won two Senate elections which proves she knows how to make the final decision in campaigns and come out the winner. No one on the Democratic side comes close to her range of persuasion success.

Giuliani has won several NY city elections with campaigns that he clearly designed and directed. He has worked on several winning Presidential campaigns, but not within an inner circle of advisors. No one on the Republican side comes close to the range of his persuasion success. Mr. McCain seems to be the current alternative, but he has proven that he knows how to lose the primaries and the only person to lose a nomination then comeback to win a later one (and the general election) is Ronald Reagan and he lost the first nomination against a sitting President seeking election (Gerald Ford).

If this persuasion analysis holds true and Clinton and Giuliani are nominated, I’d predict that Mrs. Clinton would win the general election. Her first hand experience with successful Presidential campaigns gives her the decided advantage over all Republicans, including Mr. Giuliani.

Think about it. Consider this list of nominees since World War II and the characteristics of the ultimate winner. Consider the past campaigning experience of each man. Persuasion skill is typically decisive in the ultimate winner.

2004: Bush versus Kerry

2000: Bush versus Gore

1996: Clinton versus Dole

1992: Clinton versus Bush

1988: Bush versus Dukakis

1984: Reagan versus Mondale

1980: Reagan versus Carter

1976: Carter versus Ford

1972: Nixon versus McGovern

1968: Nixon versus Humphrey

1964: Johnson versus Goldwater

1960: Kennedy versus Nixon

1956: Eisenhower versus Stevenson

1952: Eisenhower versus Stevenson

1948: Truman versus Dewey

Thus, a persuasion analysis suggests that Hillary Clinton is a lock to be nominated President and to win.