Political observers are drawing a straight line between rising gas prices and President Obama’s falling opinion ratings. Yet any smart observer, political or otherwise, will tell you that Presidents do not and cannot control gas prices.
Consider a recent poll of a panel of economists conducted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where I teach. (Disclosure: I am a member of the panel; the other respondents are well-respected economists from top universities with varying political views.) The 41 panel members were asked whether they agreed with the following statement: “Changes in U.S. gasoline prices over the past 10 years have predominantly been due to market factors rather than U.S. federal economic or energy policies.” Not a single member of the panel disagreed with the statement.
The writer then provides a rational look at gas prices and the larger market forces that drive them, then makes comparisons to other areas of economic life that are better than energy costs and suggests that Obama should at least get credit for this. All in all, the article is a standard example of a well argued, partisan position for supporting Mr. Obama.
Now, here’s the persuasion twist. The author of this NY Times opinion piece is Dr. Richard Thaler who is more famous for writing another piece, Nudge. You may remember Nudge as the progressive persuasion that would bring the Peripheral Route to the Federal Government and make the world a better place with a wide variety of artful, deep, and scientific Nudges. Other Guys would be Nudged into better diet, more exercise, less drug use, and in general becoming happy, shiny people. Thaler and his partner, Sunstein, proposed Nudge as the wonder weapon for a new society, the persuasion play no one would see, yet change everyone for the better.
As I warned a long time ago, Nudge didn’t work as advertised in the original book and wouldn’t work in the Federal government and now you see it revealed. Mr. Obama is in for a difficult re-election campaign after three years of Nudging. How can he be in such bad political shape when he followed the theory and research of his UChicago brethren, Sunstein and Thaler? He even hired Sunstein to join his Administration. All that Nudging and look where he is. Not only are the courts overturning his laws and regulations, but public opinion is turning against him.
Past all the success Nudge failed to deliver, you see that Thaler himself is repudiating the Nudge as an effective persuasion play in the op-ed piece with the Times. Where’s the Choice Architecture? Where’s the nuance? Where’s the tide beneath the surface? He orates with boilerplate, a letter to the editor that extols the virtues of one against the vices of everyone else. You’ve heard this persuasion play a thousand times and run it yourself in your local paper or with your family or friends or coworkers. The play is rational and reasonable. And worse still, nothing but Sincere, Authentic, and Obvious.
Persuasion mavens, see it. The Nudge was a half-baked Fairy Tale from the start, but the Cool Table took it to the White House anyway. And now even Nudgers won’t Nudge to budge voters or public opinion.
There’s a Difference between Persuasion, and Smoke and Mirrors; With Persuasion the Illusion Lingers.
